Dave I agree. With public sector redundancies the influx of new people into this industry is fairly certain. In fact I believe that's what some of the tile training centres are pinning their hopes on. PLUS the government are paying / sponsoring these centres and unemployed people to retrain and learn a skill. So the tile training centres have bums on seats.
What does it all mean? Not sure really! For example Its the same story I hear from taxi drivers. Loads of new people use redundancy payouts to buy a car, take the course and sign up as a cab driver with a satnav. They think its easy work. A few airport runs. Some Friday night fares and then a Saturday afternoon sitting on the rank in town. Reality is that there are less people going out, less people using taxi's and the airport runs are like gold dust for drivers. And its all unsocial hours.
Unfortunetly that industry - rather like tiling - has a low barriers to entry. As you pointed out yourself its easy to think you can rock up to a tile training school, then get a van and tools, go knock on doors and get work. Reality is that its a bit more than the sum of those parts. In fact ITS BLOODY HARD WORK not only getting and maintaining jobs plus the work but the physical labour intensive part of lugging boxes of tiles about.
I think the best to hope for is that is a short term fix, that some of these career boys with soft office jobs follow that route and then after a while get fed up with the raw manual graft involved and then use their business brains to set up companies that employ the skills of those who have been in the profession and have a passion for the craft. Its a long term game we are all playing and this is a 2 year blip in a 10 to 20 year career for most.
Now as a non-tiler myself (whattttt he doesnt tile?) The point is I CAN TILE and I have done some bits. But when it comes down to it I prefer to EMPLOY the skills of professionals like you to tile rather than to tackle it myself. And the reason I do this is because once upon a time... I too "Gave it a bit of a go" and soon realised that to go from an average job to a great job requires the paid labour of somebody else.
Fast forward to today and I am currently mid-project and above are the lovely silky smooth walls of the bathroom just waiting for tiles. Will I do it myself? No way! - Its time to pay one of you to do it.
So my thinking on the moral of tale from my own experience. Tiling as a
career? Its a short term thing. And for every 20 that start out on the tiling route who have come out of industry only 1 will come to love it. The rest will all drift back to other things.